Kamala Harris has a serious messaging problem
5 November 2024
See us in Marcomm News
It’s crunch time in the US Presidential election. And earlier this week, the Nate Silver designed 538 Politics model, which uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes, ticked towards a Trump win on November 5th. If (according to the model), the election was held today, Trump would win 52 times out of 100.
There has been a general sense within most media outlets of a momentum shift towards Trump. But this visible reflection in the 538 model will be causing serious panic within the Harris campaign. Their worst Trump returning fears could be playing out in front of them.
So why is Harris slipping in the polls?
Well, successful presidential campaigns are based on simple clear messaging. A message that can be repeated at rally’s, in ads and remembered by voters as they head to polling stations.
Barrack Obama ran on hope and change. Bill Clinton stood for ‘putting people first and being on your side’. George W Bush ran on compassionate conservatism. And in 2016, Make America Great Again took Trump to the Whitehouse.
This time around, Donald Trump’s message is very clear. He’ll close the border and cut taxes. But what does Kamala Harris stand for? I’m not sure voters know.
And this is a problem.
When President Biden stood down in July, making way for Vice President Harris to take the party nomination, the Democrats saw a big bounce in the polls, and a huge momentum boost. But unfortunately for Harris, this now feels like an ‘anyone but Biden’ bounce. There was huge relief and excitement in having a smart, dynamic, much younger candidate, who had the energy and charisma to campaign properly. And this was immediately reflected in the polls.
The presential debate was another great moment for Harris. She showed off her prosecutor skills, argued for her policies, and was widely considered the clear winner, versus a seemingly aging Trump, who couldn’t resist talking about Haitian illegal immigrants eating dogs in Ohio.
But since that high point, when she was favourite to win, Harris seems to have lost her momentum.
The problem for Harris isn’t in her skills as a debater, or her delivery at campaign rally’s. It’s her foundational message. Or lack of it.
What does she and her brand stand for?
As we enter the last few days of the campaign, Harris is throwing everything at Trump. From a comparison to Adolf Hitler, to his unchecked power threatening American democracy, ex-Trump allies and cabinet members are coming out with emergency danger stories about him, and Harris is utilising all of them.
But will the ‘unstable and unhinged’, ‘anyone but Trump’ message be enough?
Especially against the populist America First brand that Trump has built over the past 8 years.
Having previously been criticised for not doing any sit-down interviews, the VP has been speaking to everyone, from 60 Minutes to NBC and even to Fox News. She’s just done a live CNN Town Hall with undecided voters, but was denied a second debate opportunity, by Trump declining the offer.
But whilst she’s getting the opportunities to speak, and perhaps impressing people with her overall performances, she’s not landing an overarching message, or a key vision for the future. Instead, she’s just laying into Trump.
As wise marketers and brand experts know, this is very likely not enough.
If America needs to hear more from Harris, ironically, the danger from Trump is talking too much. Whatever your view on his policies and character the Trump Brand is strong.
Even a stunt at McDonalds, serving a few hand-picked Trump supporters Big Macs and fries, reinforced everything about his populist ‘in touch with real people’ brand. And his supporters are Lovin’ it.
As a candidate, Trump is not the same person as he was in 2016. He’s older, seemingly less energetic, not as sharp, more prone to mumbling and having weird moments on stage. And he doesn’t have the one-line campaign catchphrases of ‘lock her up’ and ‘build a wall’. He’s not the new news challenger brand he once was. But the fact is, he’s spent time building his brand, and it’s strong. In many ways, he doesn’t need to say anything new, or do any debates or interviews. His brand is doing the talking for him.
You can accuse Trump of lots of things (and many people have, in courts across America), but you can’t say he doesn’t stand for something. His MAGA brand of populism, America first, no-nonsense politics is a powerful movement, almost religious in certain parts of America. And whilst this cultish passion won’t be in play in the key suburbs of the critical swing States, the foundations of brand Trump will be. People know what Trump stands for.
So, the question for November 5th is, can Kamala Harris nudge her numbers up a couple more percent, and become the first ever female US President? The polls are so tight, and swing State margins so thin, that it currently feels like a coin toss. But if Harris can spend a little less time talking about the dangers of Trump, and articulate a simple, clear and positive vision for America, based on the economy, with her own style of populism, to connect with undecided voters, she’ll give herself more of a chance.
