Same old 'Brand Trump'? Same old comms mistakes

7 August 2024

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When former president Donald Trump raised his fist in the air for that now  famous photo , with blood splattered across his face and the US flag flying in the background against a perfect Pennsylvania blue sky, it was the start of a dream period for him in the race to become the next US president.

With president Joe Biden stumbling from his terrible debate performance, the Democrats lacking unity, and major court decisions going Trump’s way, his rise from the floor after being shot in the ear felt like a defining moment. Anything other than a dominant Trump win in November seemed unlikely.

But things change quickly in politics. With president Biden pulling out of the race and Kamala Harris now the Democratic nominee, the Democrats suddenly feel united, the mainstream media is fully behind the Vice-President, and the momentum now seems firmly with her.

Harris’ campaign managed to raise a record-breaking $81m in donations in its first day of campaigning, and Harris appears to have hit the ground running, with her "say-it-to-my-face-Donald"-style soundbites landing blows in ways Biden’s speeches could not. And, by leaning into Charli xcx’s "Brat Summer" , she seems to be engaging with younger voters in a non-cringe way. Something Hillary Clinton failed to do, when she took on Trump.

"Kamalamania", as some supportive US media outlets are calling it, might be a stretch, but there is serious wind behind the potentially first female US president's sails.

In response, Trump is making the same branding and communications mistakes he made in 2020. He’s doubling down on his message to his core audience, not growing his following. 

As marketers know, big brands cannot grow by targeting the same people with the same messages. There comes a point when new audiences are needed. Brands also need to stay culturally relevant and adapt to changing consumer needs.

In 2020, the Trump campaign ignored this, and his failure to expand his support likely cost him the election. With his red state MAGA voting blocs already locked in, he could have run a positive, unifying re-election campaign based on his economic and foreign policy record. But instead, he stuck to aggressive tactics, insults and name-calling, turning off key swing-state suburban voters, especially women.

It was a fatal mistake.

Crunch time is approaching again, and the Trump brand seems to be following the same playbook as four years ago. He’s doubling down on his MAGA brand values and not expanding his audience.

First, his running mate selection. In choosing a potential VP, Trumphad an opportunity to modernise his brand, widen his appeal, and reach out to the more moderate side of the Republican party. He could have picked a complementary running partner, perhaps a woman, like Nikki Haley. She could have softened his image with undecided voters and signalled unity and change.

But Trump did the opposite. In picking Ohio senator JD Vance, he doubled down on the MAGA movement. Vance’s extreme anti-abortion policies and sexist rhetoric do not help Trump win support among suburban female voters in crucial swing states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Instead, it reminds them of the division and chaos from Trump's last presidential term.

Perhaps running against a black woman with Indian heritage has thrown him and muddled his campaign strategy. His recent appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists conference was a disaster. He questioned Harris' race , stumbled over his "black jobs" label, and called journalists "nasty" for asking legitimate questions.

Trump isn’t understanding his audience, scoring own goals against the very voters he needs to attract. There are 33 million people of voting age in the US who identify as mixed race, the fastest-growing racial group there. His core right-wing base may see his tactics as "old-school conservative fighting talk", but to the moderate voters he needs, it’s a major turn-off.

Following the failed assassination attempt on Trump, there was a moment when it appeared his campaign strategy might change. He might move away from aggressive divisive tactics and attempt to be a unifier, crafting messages to bring moderate Republicans and independents towards him. Swing voters seemed destined to go his way if this new moderate expression of brand Trump could be expressed effectively. But it seems there is only one way that Trumpdoes Trump. He’s quickly reverted to his core brand and doubled down on his base, and, just like in 2020, it could cost him.

There is still a long way to go in this election of course, and there may be more game-changing moments. Will Vance survive? Will Trump pivot and bring a woman onto his ticket? Can he evolve and modernise his brand to appeal to more moderate swing voters? And will Tim Walz, Harris’ VP pick, give her a bounce? Walz was the first to call Trump and Vance "weird", which has now become a label used by some Democrats, including Harris.

The answers to these questions will be telling. But if Harris can ride her wave of positivity and rise above Trump’s insults, the US may well elect its first female president on 5 November.

Jamie Williams, Managing Partner.